Downscaling urban resilience assessment: A spatiotemporal analysis of urban blocks using the fuzzy Delphi method and K-means clustering (2024)

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

In Iran, location is usually done by temporary relief organizations without considering the necessary standards or conditions. The inappropriate and unscientific location may have led to another catastrophe, even far greater than the initial tragedy. In this study, the proposed locations of crisis management in the region and the optimal points proposed by the Geographic Information System (GIS), taking into account the opinions of experts and without the opinion of experts, were evaluated according to 18 criteria. First, the optimal areas have been evaluated according to standard criteria extracted by GIS and the intended locations of the region for accommodation in times of crisis. Then, the position of each place is calculated concerning each criterion. The resulting matrix of optimal options was qualitatively entered into the Preference Ranking Organization Method for Evaluation (PROMETHEE) for analysis. The triangular fuzzy aggregation method for weighting and standard classifi...

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 50, 2020

Earthquakes are a natural phenomen which induce a natural hazard that seriously threatens 19 urban areas despite significant advances in retrofitting urban buildings and enhanced knowledge and 20 ability of experts in natural disaster control. Iran is one of the most seismically active countries in the 21 world. The purpose of this study was to evaluate and analyze the extent of earthquake vulnerability in 22 relation to demographic, environmental, and physical criteria. An earthquake risk assessment (ERA) 23 map was created by using a Fuzzy-Analytic Hierarchy Process coupled with an Artificial Neural 24 Networks (FAHP-ANN) model generating five vulnerability classes. Combining the application of a 25 FAHP-ANN with a geographic information system (GIS) enabled to assign weights to the layers of 26 the earthquake vulnerability criteria. The model was applied to Sanandaj City in Iran, located in the 27 seismically active Sanandaj-Sirjan zone which is frequently affected by devastating earthquakes. The 28 Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) model was implemented in the IDRISI software and 250 points were 29 validated for grades 0 and 1. The validation process revealed that the proposed model can produce an 30 earthquake probability map with an accuracy of 95%. A comparison of the results attained by using a 31 FAHP, AHP and MLP model shows that the hybrid FAHP-ANN model proved flexible and reliable 32 when generating the ERA map. The FAHP-ANN model accurately identified the highest earthquake 33 vulnerability in densely populated areas with dilapidated building infrastructure. The findings of this 34 study are useful for decision makers with a scientific basis to develop earthquake risk management 35 strategies. 36

Environment, Development and Sustainability, 2021

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 2020

This research aims to identify the economic logic in the process of locating and the spatial transmitting of the knowledge-based institutions in Iran while on the macro and micro levels, it seeks to find an optimal location for the knowledge-based activities in Tehran. The research method is mixed and statistical population of this research includes a number of 879 knowledge-based companies which are officially registered in the vice-president of the information technology ministry. In order to identify the impactful criteria on site selection of the corporations in Iran, Delphi method is used. The sample size for the Delphi method includes 50 samples; interviews with managers in the knowledge-based companies. In order to set the extracted priority of the criteria, the Shannon entropy method and MCDM software was employed, then selection of different regions with higher priority was done by overlaying and using the Fuzzy ELECTRE method. On the second step, the mentioned bank of data...

Sustainable Cities and Society, 2019

Computational Urban Science, 2021

United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal targets to make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient, and sustainable; as it is predicting 95% urban expansion in the next decades. Consequently, urban livability can serve as a useful conceptual and analytical framework to improve the quality of urban life by facilitating the evaluation of the person–environment relationship and leading the improvement without deteriorating the environmental conditions. This present paper aims to identify the dimensions and indicators of subjective and objective livability for Siliguri Municipal Corporation (SMC). The residents’ perception has been carried out using stratified random sampling technique. Samples have been collected from the residents from each core, semi-periphery and peripheral areas of SMC. Mainly, adaptation of Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) model involves four livability dimensions; under which the overall model explains 65%...

BMC Public Health

Background Tehran, the 22nd most populous city in the world, has the highest mortality rate due to respiratory system diseases (RSDs) in Iran. This study aimed to investigate spatiotemporal patterns of mortality due to these diseases in Tehran between 2008 and 2018. Methods We used a dataset available from Tehran Municipality including all cases deceased due RSDs in this city between 2008 and 2018. Global Moran’s I was performed to test whether the age-adjusted mortality rates were randomly distributed or had a spatial pattern. Furthermore, Anselin Local Moran’s I was conducted to identify potential clusters and outliers. Results During the 10-year study, 519,312 people died in Tehran, 43,177 because of RSDs, which corresponds to 831.1 per 10,000 deaths and 5.0 per 10,000 population. The death rate was much higher in men (56.8%) than in women (43.2%) and the highest occurred in the > 65 age group (71.2%). Overall, three diseases dominated the mortality data: respiratory failure (...

urban science, 2023

The present study aimed to develop a practical framework consisting of GIS and MCDM to assess the development sustainability of Karaj, a city in the west of Tehran, Iran. Firstly, the influencing factors on sustainable urban development including seven criteria and 24 sub-criteria were screened and selected based on literature review, interviews with experts and Delphi technique. Then, the criteria were weighted and prioritized using Group Fuzzy BWM (GFBWM) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methods. Fuzzy logic and Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) methods in GIS were used to determine the sustainability of Karaj for urban development. Finally, Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) was used to rank the identified areas. Our findings showed that the socioeconomic criterion and employment sub-criterion were the most important in AHP and GF-BWM methods. Both methods estimated that about 30% of the entire study area was highly sustainable in terms of urban development with no significant difference between the two methods. Finally, TOPSIS selected the center and north of the city as those with the highest priority. The integrated approach used in this study provided a flexible tool for analysis of the sustainable development, useful for planners and city managers.

Nexo Revista Científica, 2020

Nexo Revista Científica, 2020

The management of natural disasters requires understanding their essence, making accurate assessments, planning, and providing appropriate solutions. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the physical resilience of the 22 neighborhoods of Babol located in the north of Iran against earthquakes. The methodology of this applied research study is descriptive-analytical. In this regard, by initially studying similar national and international studies, using the expert opinion of seismology and urban planning specialists and interviewing experienced urban managers in the field of crisis management, 30 effective indices on physical resilience against earthquake risk were extracted. Then, using analytic functions of GIS software and multi-criteria models including AHP, TOPSIS, VIKOR and COPRAS, the physical resilience of Babol against earthquakes was evaluated. Then, in order to obtain accurate results, using the integration models including the Statistic, BORDA and COPELAND, the physica...

Ijest, 2022

Urban sustainability can be considered as a part of sustainable development, which emphasizes the balance between three dimensions of environmental, economic, and social sustainability to improve human well-being and the quality of life. In this study, it was attempted to assess urban sustainability in the most critical, populous, and expanded district of Tehran (district 4) using sustainability assessment by fuzzy evaluation. For this purpose, 52 primary indices which were divided into 8 secondary components were employed. Among them, 18 indices for environmental issues were grouped into three secondary indices as E 1 , to E 3 , and 34 indices for economic-social and cultural issues were classified into five secondary indices as H 1 to H 5. The results revealed that 56% of the study area was potentially unsustainable and 44% of it had a medium sustainability in terms of environmental aspects. Furthermore, 65% of the study area had a medium human well-being sustainability and 35% of it was potentially unsustainable in terms of economic-social and cultural aspects. Finally, 45% of the study area was found unsuitable in terms of overall urban sustainability. The functional sample proposed in the present study can provide the directors and planners with the required information about the condition of sustainability in the most important district of Tehran.

Sustainability

Sustainable development and urban resilience are dominant urban planning paradigms that have become buzzwords in urban planning and policy domains over the past 2–3 decades. While these two paradigms have been analyzed and scrutinized in different studies, the interconnection between them in policy realms is understudied. Compact development policy is expected to contribute to a variety of sustainability goals. However, these goals’ alignment with the principles and goals of urban resilience is under question. This research tries to shed some light on this issue. A critical review method is employed to understand how compactness as a sustainable urban development policy relates to different principles and dimensions of urban resilience. First, the conceptual and theoretical relationship between urban resilience and compact city is established. Next, the resulting framework is used to critically analyze 124 articles to understand how the compact city policy relates to urban resilienc...

Sustainability

This paper aims to reveal the shortcomings of the land use efficiency assessment formula presented in SDG 11.3.1 Indicator and develop a framework that can provide urban planners with a more accurate understanding of the variables influencing and/or influenced by urban expansion. Based on the mentioned formula, Tehran never experienced urban shrinkage between 1986 and 2021, as shown by the relationship between land consumption and population growth. However, the research findings indicate that land allocation patterns have not only decreased most urban services per capita, but have also undermined ecosystem services during this period. In this paper, we propose a new assessment framework by which a dual aspect of urban planning is addressed, namely providing sustainable urban services while protecting natural resources, and using ecosystem services sustainably to support cost–beneficial urbanization. For this purpose, a total of ten mainly repeated contributing variables were collec...

Big Data and Cognitive Computing, 2022

The impact of Big Data (BD) creates challenges in selecting relevant and significant data to be used as criteria to facilitate flood management plans. Studies on macro domain criteria expand the criteria selection, which is important for assessment in allowing a comprehensive understanding of the current situation, readiness, preparation, resources, and others for decision assessment and disaster events planning. This study aims to facilitate the criteria identification and selection from a macro domain perspective in improving flood management planning. The objectives of this study are (a) to explore and identify potential and possible criteria to be incorporated in the current flood management plan in the macro domain perspective; (b) to understand the type of flood measures and decision goals implemented to facilitate flood management planning decisions; and (c) to examine the possible structured mechanism for criteria selection based on the decision analysis technique. Based on ...

Indian Journal of Public Administration, 2021

Cities are widely considered to be the engines of economic growth, as they contribute for more than 70% of global economy. However, the haphazard urbanisation trends are today resulting in widespread problems of urban sprawl, pollution, housing, crime and disaster and so on. While India is one of the least urbanised large developing countries of the world, the country is witnessing rapid urbanisation (projected to add 404 million of urban population by 2050). However, the associated problems are impacting the liveability of the cities in India. In light of that, this study aims to evaluate the liveability of Tier-1 cities of India. In reference to the existing literature, eleven key indicators have been identified for the evaluation of liveability. For the ease of analysis, these indicators are broadly clustered under five categories, that is, health, environment, transport, geography and socio-economy. The correlation analysis between the indicators and the number of Covid-19 cases...

Buildings

As the world’s third-largest oil and natural gas producer, Iran consumed enormous amounts of non-renewable energy during the last twenty years. There are many obsolete buildings in the Iranian building stock, which required energy renovation. Many studies in the literature proposed energy retrofitting strategies to increase the efficiency of buildings, but few of them involve an energy network for the entire neighbourhood (such as district heating). Moreover, energy renovation is not sufficient to improve the smartness level of a community; in fact, it is essential to evaluate sustainable and social aspects. In this direction, this study aims to develop a comprehensive analysis of the current criticalities of a district in Tehran (District 5), proposing strategies to face the pollution of the city, provide a healthy environment for the citizens, and renovate the old buildings. The application of a decision support method is presented to set a priority ranking, pointing out the posit...

The main issue in determining the seismic vulnerability is having a comprehensive view to all probable damages related to earthquake occurrence. Therefore, taking factors such as peak ground acceleration (PGA) in the time of earthquake occurrence, the type of structures, population distribution among different age groups, level of education, the physical distance to a hospitals (or medical care centers), etc. into account and categorized under four indicators of geotechnical, structural, social and physical distance to needed facilities and distance from dangerous ones will provide us with a better and more exact outcome. To this end in this paper using analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the amount of importance of criteria or alternatives are determined and using geographical information system (GIS), the vulnerability of Tehran metropolitan as a result of an earthquake, is studied. This study focuses on the fact that Tehran is surrounded by three active and major faults of the Mosh...

The Science of The Total Environment, 2024

Most coastal cities have been experiencing unprecedented urbanization-induced flood risk, climatic events, and haphazard anthropogenic activities, jeopardizing residents' lives and building environments. Despite mounting flood-related studies, analyzing the correlation between the spatiotemporal dynamics of Built-up Expansion patterns (BE) and flood risk remains unknown and holds divergent perspectives. In this context, the coastal city of Alexandria, Egypt, characterized by multiple urban patterns and experiencing heavy rainfall annually, was selected as a testbed. Our method defined the spatiotemporal rates of BE from 1995 to 2023, quantified flood risk spatially, and finally investigated the correlation between BE and flood risk through spatial and statistical analysis. Our results show the built-up area occupied 30.32 % of the total city area till 2023, and the infilling pattern dominated the BE growth by 45.21 % of the total built-up area, followed by leapfrogging and edge expansion by 33.25 % and 21.55 %, respectively. The unplanned-infilling pattern is predominantly highly correlated with the flood-vulnerable peaks (correlation coefficient (rk) = 0.975, p-value < 0.05) and lowers dramatically towards planned-infilling regions with flood protections. Meanwhile, a spatial mismatch exists between high-risk peaks and leapfrogging and edge expansion (rk = 0.118 and 0.662, respectively, with a p-value < 0.01), indicating that controlling the built-up amount is inadequate for mitigating flood risk. Porosity-based urban configuration and spatial distribution of built-up patches in harmony with nature-based solutions are recommended for shaping flood-resilient and effective urban planning.

Sustainable Cities and Society, 2023

This research investigates the relationship between COVID-19 and urban factors in Tokyo. To understand the spread dynamics of COVID-19, the study examined 53 urban variables (including population density, socioeconomic status, housing conditions, transportation, and land use) in 53 municipalities of Tokyo prefecture. Using spatial models, the study analysed the patterns and predictors of COVID-19 infection rates. The findings revealed that COVID-19 cases were concentrated in central Tokyo, with clustering levels decreasing after the outbreaks. COVID-19 infection rates were higher in areas with a greater density of retail stores, restaurants, health facilities, workers in those sectors, public transit use, and telecommuting. However, household crowding was negatively associated. The study also found that telecommuting rate and housing crowding were the strongest predictors of COVID-19 infection rates in Tokyo, according to the regression model with time-fixed effects, which had the best validation and stability. This study's results could be useful for researchers and policymakers, particularly because Japan and Tokyo have unique circ*mstances, as there was no mandatory lockdown during the pandemic.

Buildings, 2022

As the destructive impacts of both human-made and natural disasters on societies and built environments are predicted to increase in the future, innovative disaster management strategies to cope with emergency conditions are becoming more crucial. After a disaster, selecting the most critical post-disaster reconstruction projects among available projects is a challenging decision due to resource constraints. There is strong evidence that the success of many post-disaster reconstruction projects is compromised by inappropriate decisions when choosing the most critical projects. Therefore, this study presents an integrated approach based on four multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques, namely, TOPSIS, ELECTRE III, VIKOR, and PROMETHEE, to aid decision makers in prioritizing post-disaster projects. Furthermore, an aggregation approach (linear assignment) is used to generate the final ranking vector since various methods may provide different outcomes. In the first stage, 21 cr...

Pizhūhish va barnāmah/rīzī-i rūstāyī, 2019

Purpose- Due to the dewatering of Karun Dam, the village of Southern Donbaleh Roud of Izeh County has been surrounded by water since 2004 until now and has been deprived of services and amenities and communication. Moreover, their access to the cities of Dehdez and Izeh has been limited. Given the importance of the issue, the aim of this study is to assess and evaluate the sustainability of development in rural areas of Southern Donbaleh Roud District. Design/methodology/approach- This research is based on the applied purpose and has an analytical- descriptive nature. Required data were collected using library and field (questionnaire) method. The area under study includes 18 villages and 1460 households. The sample size was estimated based on Cochran formula of 300 family guardians and the questionnaires were distributed among them. To analyze the data from the questionnaire, the Prometheus model (in the visual Prometheus software environment) and the fuzzy inference system (in MAT...

Introduction Urban form is defined as the spatial distribution pattern of human activities at a certain point in time. It is made up of the visible elements and components of cities and consists of natural and artificial elements as the spatial crystallization of the community activities. Awareness of the spatial form and the shape of the city can be one of the important factors influencing the success of urban planners and managers. The importance of this issue has led to the use of various methods for measuring urban form in recent years to determine the distribution of compression. In Iran, in urban development plans we have used building density as a means of curbing urban development and spatial equilibrium, but in many cases, the discussion of density and analysis remains only in the scope of the plan; because today in the cities in north of Iran there are cases of irregular urban growth and without planning. This can bring heavy expenses for the city managers. Knowing the den...

Tehnički glasnik

Resilience is a new approach to assessing and enhancing the resilience and resilience of the foundations of development in cities. Explaining and recognizing its effective and promotional components can pave the way for many programs related to crisis management and passive urban defense, which is very necessary given the complexities of today&#39;s threats. Different dimensions of human society resilience are examined in the physical, social, economic, environmental-institutional fields. In fact, resilience as a framework goes back to a concept that can easily relate to all stages and sections of disaster and crisis management. In this regard, the present study has been compiled with the aim of evaluating the dimensions of economic-physical resilience of cities around the metropolis of Tehran in the Islamshahr region. In this study, first through library studies, indicators and factors affecting economic and institutional resilience were identified and operational defined, then usi...

Journal of Applied Water Engineering and Research, 2020

Sustainable Cities and Society

Analytic Hierarchy Process - Models, Methods, Concepts, and Applications [Working Title]

Natural hazards cause numerous problems occurred mostly in residential areas. Affordable housing is one of the types of housing that is planned for low- and middle-income groups. Optimum location of affordable housing is one of the most important criteria for this type of housing. Due to the high vulnerability of its residents, it is necessary to evaluate the site resilience. This study is aimed to identify and prioritize the criteria of physical resilience that are effective in selecting a resilient location for the affordable housing construction. Documentary materials is used to explain the literature and to determine the effective factors on physical resilience. Then the criteria were prioritized using AHP method by 22 experts. The important criteria obtained from the research include Infrastructure & Services (IS), Region Context (RC), Natural Environment (NE) and Surrounding Uses (SU). This research can be the basis of a strategic document for the discussion of the affordable ...

Climate, 2020

Since the impacts of climate change will last for many years, adaptation to this phenomenon should be prioritized in urban management plans. Although Tehran, the capital of Iran, has been subject to a variety of climate change impacts in recent years, appropriate adaptation measures to address them are yet to be taken. This study primarily aims to categorize the barriers to climate change adaptation in Tehran and analyze the way they interact with each other. The study was done in three steps: first, the focus group discussion (FGD) method was used to identify the barriers; next, the survey and the structural equation modeling (SEM) were used to validate the barriers, identify their importance, and examine their possible inter-relationships; and finally, the interpretive structural modeling (ISM) was applied to categorize and visualize the relationships between the barriers. Results show that barriers related to the ‘structure and culture of research’, ‘laws and regulations’, and ‘p...

PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 2022

The resilience of people to an adverse event in their city, community or environment reflects their flexibility in coping with or absorbing the incident. Achieving a resilient community requires attention to both physical and social aspects of resilience. In this quantitative survey, the spatial distribution of theft crimes in the districts of the city of Varamin were analyzed with the help of nearest neighbor index (NNI) and kernel density estimation (KDE) methods, and the social and physical aspects of resilience were evaluated by the use of questionnaires, official reports, and public records. The results showed a relationship, with a correlation coefficient of -0.344, between crime rate and resilience, which indicates that the communities that enjoy a higher resilience have a significantly lower crime rate. The rate of crimes varied with social, economic and physical characteristics of districts, and while the crime vulnerability indicators of peripheral districts were mostly ph...

Given the qualitative, exploratory and comparative nature of the investigation, this study has employed a mixed-methods approach. According to the conceptual framework of this research, the emphasis of the study is on mechanisms and interrelationships that affect the process and product of urban sustainability assessment. Accordingly, this study has concentrated on the identification of the urban sustainability indicators, data sources and assessment methods and their strategies and interests within the environmental, socio-cultural and economic contexts in which they operated. To this end, the study has enjoyed the insights from 64 participants including experts, scholars, practitioners as well as high-ranking officials across the ministries, municipalities and local authorities, through carrying out a questionnaire survey and conducting a series of semi-structured interviews in Iran. Due to a lack of established and well-documented data, it was initially required to find out what ...

Sustainability

As negative impacts of climate change tend to increase in the future, densely-populated cities especially need to take action on being robust against natural hazards. Consequently, there is a growing interest from scientists in measuring the climate resilience of cities and regions. However, current measurements are usually assessed on administrative levels, not covering potential hotspots of hazardous or sensitive areas. The main aim of this paper focusses on the measurement of climate resilience in the City of Dortmund, Germany, using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Based on a literature review, we identified five essential components of climate resilience and initially designed a theoretical framework of 18 indicators. Since climate resilience is still a vague concept in scientific discourses, we implemented local expert knowledge and fuzzy logic modelling into our analysis. The benefit of this study not only lies in the fine-scale application, but also in the relevance for...

Sustainability, 2020

Cities around the world increasingly recognize the need to build on their resilience to deal with the converging forces of urbanization and climate change. Given the significance of critical infrastructure for maintaining quality of life in cities, improving their resilience is of high importance to planners and policy makers. The main purpose of this study is to spatially analyze the resilience of water, electricity, and gas critical infrastructure networks in Ahvaz, a major Iranian city that has been hit by various disastrous events over the past few years. Towards this goal, we first conducted a two-round Delphi survey to identify criteria that can be used for determining resilience of critical infrastructure networks across different parts of the city. The selected criteria that were used for spatial analysis are related to the physical texture, the design pattern, and the scale of service provision of the critical infrastructure networks. Results showed that, overall, critical ...